Bills Rookie Needs More Attention

The Buffalo Bills have not experienced too many problems in 2024, sitting atop the AFC East — alone — with a 2-0 record.

Bills Rookie Needs More Attention

Head coach Sean McDermott’s offense ranks second in DVOA entering Week 3, only trailing the upstart New Orleans Saints, a team that refuses futile drives. But the Bills’ offense can climb even higher if it involves one rookie more frequently in the passing game — Keon Coleman.

Coleman has not been wholly ignored in Buffalo’s offensive plans, yet his usage is low, generally speaking. Quarterback Josh Allen has targeted Coleman six times in two games, and more specifically, Allen warmed up to Coleman in a Week 2 triumph over the Miami Dolphins. He threw in Coleman’s direction 5 times, resulting in 4 receptions for 51 yards. Therefore, the Bills are “getting there.” It’s just that they should take the lid off.

After Stefon Diggs left town for the Houston Texans via trade, Buffalo craved a productive WR1, using the 2024 NFL Draft to pluck Coleman from Florida State. Bills fans spent five months daydreaming about Coleman’s upside, while Allen has targeted incumbent veteran Khalil Shakir 8 times in two weeks. Tight end Dalton Kincaid has also accrued six targets, the same as Coleman.

Now’s the time to pivot and determine if Coleman can handle the big job. Curtis Samuel, Mack Hollins, and Marquez Valdes-Scantling have handled “mop-up duty,” so to speak, in the passing game, but none have Coleman’s athletic upside. He can perform receiving responsibilities more boldly than Samuel, Hollins, and Valdes-Scantling. Few debate it.

Remarkably, Buffalo ranks as the top dog leaguewide per passing DVOA at the moment, meaning there’s an element of “It isn’t broke, don’t fix it” in play. Still, Coleman’s emergence is inevitable, and now is the organic time to target him like a fiend. In time, he can become the new Diggs, at least per usage rate.

After Coleman’s single catch in Week 1 versus the Arizona Cardinals, Allen said about Coleman, “He went up and made a play. I feel like I could’ve thrown a touchdown earlier in the game to him on a little post route at the goal line, elected to run.”

“After looking at that, I was like, ‘You know what, I’m just going to trust the kid and let him do what he does.’ Made a great play there,” he added.

The chemistry is blossoming, and no Pro Bowl-caliber wideout on Buffalo’s roster stands in Coleman’s way. He’s a standalone talent in Buffalo’s WR room, with Shakir likely possessing the long-term upside as Coleman’s WR2 running mate.

At home versus Jacksonville on Monday Night Football, the Jaguars own the NFL’s 18th-best defense per the aforementioned DVOA metric. They’re not unsolvable. Coleman just needs targets. He’ll take care of the rest.

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Dustin Baker is a political scientist who graduated from the University of Minnesota in 2007. Subscribe to his daily YouTube Channel, VikesNow. The show features guests, analysis, and opinion on all things related to the purple team, with 4-7 episodes per week. His NFL obsession dates back to 1989. Listed guilty pleasures: Peanut Butter Ice Cream, ‘The Sopranos,’ Basset Hounds, and The Doors (the band). He follows the NBA as closely as the NFL. 

All statistics provided by Pro Football Reference / Stathead; all contractual information provided by OverTheCap.com.